HANOVER – The Optimist and The Pessimist were not at their usual table in their favorite establishment enjoying their weekly tête-à-tête on Tuesday morning. Instead, the old boys were braving a few flurries and meeting in the top row of the stadium, just as they do each year before the final home game.
The Optimist: What is this, 20 years now we’ve climbed up here at Memorial Field before the final home game?
The Pessimist: Nope.
The Optimist: Oh yeah, 19. I forgot about the COVID year.
The Pessimist: That’s not it.
The Optimist: I give up.
The Pessimist: It was 17 seasons at the top of the Memorial Field stands, and now two at the top of Buddy Teevens Stadium.
The Optimist: Of course. I find it interesting that for as much success as we’ve had since Buddy turned the program around, we’re looking to put the finishing touches on just our third undefeated home season since we started winning championships again. We were 5-0 here in 2015 and again in 2018.
The Pessimist: You say you are looking at an undefeated home season. I say you are looking at trying to survive an opponent who has given you fits in recent years.
The Optimist: I’m not terribly worried about Cornell. They graduated their star quarterback and are just a .500 team.
The Pessimist: After struggling early, they seem to have settled on a pretty effective new dual-threat quarterback. You do realize he's got them on a four-game winning streak, right? That's second in the Ivy League only to Harvard’s eight consecutive wins.
The Optimist: Actually, I hadn’t realized that because the guy that does the BGA daily website apparently forgot to post the updated standings on Monday.
The Pessimist: Well it’s up there now and it shows Cornell improved to 4-4 by crushing Penn last week, 39-17. That’s the same Penn team, by the way, that beat you by a dozen points earlier this season.
The Optimist: Thanks for reminding me. But let’s be serious. Cornell’s streak includes a double-overtime win against lowly Brown, and there’s nothing impressive about a three-point home win over Princeton a week later.
The Pessimist: Uh, you might want to take that last cheap shot back, don’t you think?
The Optimist: True, we only beat Princeton by three, but let’s be serious. We jumped them, 20-3, and then just took our foot off the accelerator in the fourth quarter. Trust me, that won’t happen again.
The Pessimist: What you have to hope doesn’t happen again is what happened last year out in Ithaca when a 3-5 Cornell team put a 39-22 hurt on you guys. Think about this. One week before playing you last fall the Big Red lost at Penn, 67-49. This year they come into their game against you off a 22-point win over what is actually a better Penn team than it was last fall.
The Optimist: You’ve got my attention. And I promise you they have Dartmouth’s attention.
The Pessimist: They had better. Even I had to double-check this, but for all the struggles Cornell has had the past few years, they are 3-2 against you over the past five meetings.
The Optimist: Ancient history. After we take care of the Big Red, we just need a couple little things to go our way and we’ll be playing for our third-consecutive title at Brown in another week.
The Pessimist: I’m not sure I’d call what you need a couple little things. Let’s discuss among ourselves.
The Optimist: A little SNL Coffee Talk reference, huh? OK, here’s what we need beyond winning our last two. The first thing we need is Princeton to beat Yale Saturday. That will give the Bulldogs their all-important second Ivy League loss.
The Pessimist: I'm not sure I see that. Yale has won its last four.
The Optimist: The game is in New Jersey. The other thing we need Saturday is Harvard to drop its first Ivy League game against Penn. I really expect the Quakers will be loaded for bear after losing to Cornell the last time out.
The Pessimist: Penn may be loaded for bear but they aren’t playing Brown. They are playing a Harvard team that can earn at least a share of the title by closing out their home season with a win over Quakers and they know it. I would be shocked if they stumble. For the record, if Harvard wins it eliminates everyone but Yale.
The Optimist: Now, assuming Penn wins and Yale loses Saturday, we need Yale to bounce back and hand Harvard its second Ivy loss down at the Bowl in Week 10. It helps that the Bulldogs are home and have Harvard's number. They've won three straight and six of eight against the Cantabs. I see it happening again.
The Pessimist: You see it through rose-colored glasses, to be sure. But I've got to admit, I'm actually getting a little confused about all of this.
The Optimist: I’ll give you the Cliff Notes version. Yale ends up at 5-2 in the Ivy with a loss to Princeton and win over Harvard. The Crimson stumbles to 5-2 with losses to Penn and Yale. Three-way tie.
The Pessimist: Two things.
The Optimist: Go ahead.
The Pessimist: First, it can actually be a four-way tie. In your scenario we already have Harvard and Yale with two losses apiece. Now remember, Penn comes into this week having just two league losses. With the win over Harvard, and another in the finale against Princeton they finish with two losses.
The Optimist: And the other thing?
The Pessimist: Cornell has just two Ivy losses. They have just as good a chance at winning the title as you do.
The Optimist: So there could be a five-way tie?
The Pessimist: Nope. Saturday's game between you guys and Cornell is an elimination game, pure and simple. The loser will have three Ivy losses. So if you win, you've got an outside shot. But if Cornell comes into this stadium and beats you again, you are done. And if they win their last two and the rest of the dominoes fall in place, it will be a four-way tie with you on the outside looking in. In fact, that would drop you to fifth place.
The Optimist: You seem to be up on all this stuff. If there's a four-way tie and we are one of the four, who gets the Ivy League automatic qualifier for the FCS playoffs?
The Pessimist: If I'm reading the Ivy League page right, the first of the criteria would be record against the other three quad-champions. Interestingly, the only way that works out leaves both Dartmouth and Harvard at 1-2 against the other three. Penn and Yale would both be 2-1. Yale won the head-to-head with Penn so it would get the AQ.
The Optimist: As you said before, it’s all very confusing. Maybe we should just take it one week at a time and see what happens Saturday.
The Pessimist: That’s the most sensible thing you’ve said this in years.
The Optimist: Here’s another sensible thing. Let’s call it a day and come in from the cold.
The Pessimist: Sounds like a plan. See you next week back where it’s warm and comfortable.