HANOVER – The Pessimist arrives at the usual place at the usual time, and on this day he is carrying a small bag, which is unusual. The Optimist has a puzzled look as the other fellow digs in the bag and hands him a Hershey chocolate bar.
The Optimist: What’s that all about?
The Pessimist: We had some left over from Halloween and I remember their old marketing line, “There’s a smile in every bar.” I figured after the way Harvard took it to you Saturday afternoon you could use a smile.
The Optimist: I know we lost the game but it was impressive the way we fought back from a 17-0 deficit to get within a touchdown.
The Pessimist: Even more impressive was the way Harvard responded, running off the next 21 points to end your championship hopes.
The Optimist: Look, I know the odds are against us now, but we’re far from finished.
The Pessimist: Right. You’ve got three games left.
The Pessimist: The floor is your. Go ahead.
The Optimist: OK, we need Harvard to lose twice in the last three weeks, right?
The Pessimist: I think you need them to lose twice in the last two weeks, because they aren’t going to stumble Friday night at Columbia.
The Optimist: The Lions can make their season with a win this week. Unfortunately, you are probably right. But the Crimson has Penn in another week, and the Quakers absolutely can win that game. With a Penn win all we need is Harvard to lose to Yale. I’ll remind you, the Bulldogs have won three in a row over the Crimson, and six of the last eight.
The Pessimist: Slow down there, big fella. I’m going to quote you here. You said, “With a Penn win all we need is Harvard to lose to Yale.” Not true. Even if all that happens you aren’t guaranteed a slice of the pie.
The Optimist: If you want me to paint the entire picture, here goes. Penn has just one Ivy loss, so we need them to beat Harvard but lose one of their other two games against Cornell and Princeton. Right now, Cornell is one of the hottest teams in the league and Princeton is a rivalry game. I can see it happening.
The Pessimist: If you say so, but there’s still the matter of Yale. The Bulldogs have only one Ivy loss and you require them to beat Harvard. That leaves them having to lose one of their other two games against struggling Brown and Princeton.
The Optimist: Brown and Princeton might be struggling but keep in mind, Yale will be the away team in both games. And both Brown and Princeton are capable of rising up.
The Pessimist: Be serious.
The Optimist: Have you forgotten that Brown beat Rhode Island, ranked 10th in the latest FCS Coaches Poll? And that Princeton won at 6-3 Lafayette, ranked No. 26 by the coaches this week? They are capable of surprising.
The Pessimist: So let me get this straight. You need Penn and Yale to both beat Harvard, and either Brown or Princeton to beat Yale.
The Optimist: That’s all it will take.
The Pessimist: Not quite.
The Optimist: Go ahead.
The Pessimist: In addition to all that, you need to win your last three games.
The Optimist: I like the way our schedule breaks. If Columbia wasn’t struggling the way it is, I’d say we have our three easiest Ivy League games in the final three weeks of the season.
The Pessimist: Houston, we have a problem.
The Optimist: Cliché alert. What would that problem be?
The Pessimist: You are talking out of both sides of your mouth. You’ve got Princeton this week and you just reminded me how they won at No. 26 Lafayette, so they aren’t an easy out.
The Optimist: Their very successful coach has been at Princeton since 2010. He’s won four Ivy League championships and has never won in Hanover. Not once. I'm not worried.
The Pessimist: Then you’ve got Cornell, which beat you last year, has won two of the last three against you, and has taken three of the last five in its series with you. And I seem to recall a couple of minutes ago you called Cornell, and I quote, “one of the hottest teams in the league” right now.
The Optimist: Blah, blah, blah. After taking care of business against Princeton and Cornell we finish up with Brown, who we’ve beaten seven times in a row. In fact, we haven’t lost in Providence since 2009. You could look it up.
The Pessimist: No need. I believe you. But here’s what I don’t believe. That a team with two Ivy League losses with three games remaining in the season is going to win a share of the championship.
The Optimist: Oh ye of little faith. Two years ago Yale was 1-2 with four games remaining in Ivy play and won a share along with Dartmouth and Harvard. You might recall they earned their piece of the championship pie on the final day of the season, doing exactly what they have to do on the final day this year, and that is by beating Harvard. It’s that simple.
The Pessimist: Actually, as you have already explained, it’s not simple.
The Optimist: Maybe not, but I’ll have a rooting interest in just about every game the rest of the way because I’m really excited about winning another title and going on to the playoffs.
The Pessimist: About that.
The Optimist: Yes?
The Pessimist: In your perfect scenario, you finish 5-2 in the league along with Harvard, Penn and Yale, right?
The Optimist: Right. First four-way tie in Ivy history.
The Pessimist: The first playoff tiebreaker would be records against each other. Penn would be 2-1 with wins over you and Harvard, and a loss to Yale. The Bulldogs would be 2-1 with wins over Penn and Harvard, and a loss to you. The Crimson would be 1-2 with its only win over you. And you would be 1-2 with your only win against Yale. Ergo, you and Harvard are the odd men out. Yale would then have the head-to-head advantage over Penn, meaning the Bulldogs would be the Ivy League’s automatic qualifier.
The Optimist: The championship is the most important thing, of course, but I’d be sad about not going on to the playoffs.
The Pessimist: Have a bite of that Hershey bar, my friend. Remember, “There’s a smile in every bar.”
The Optimist: We’ll know a lot more next week.
The Pessimist: See you then.