Fearful Forecast Week Two

HANOVER – There is something satisfying about picking upsets. That said, it’s certainly a high-risk, high-reward endeavor. Get an upset right, and you are a genius. But pick too many underdogs and you come across as a dolt.

Hello friends, dolt here.

Optimist-Pessimist Before Monmouth

HANOVER – For the second week in a row the old guys show up at their meeting place at exactly the same time. That’s a little out of the ordinary. Usually the happy one comes through the door and finds their table first.

    The Optimist: Kind of like coach, I’m not into moral victories, but for a first game against a seasoned, undefeated and nationally ranked team, that was a pretty good day.

Your Mileage May Vary After Lehigh

Here's your weekly half dozen observations between the Lehigh and Monmouth games.

1) The value of a talented, veteran quarterback was on full display Saturday, and never so much as on third down. Dartmouth was 9-of-14 on third down conversions and as you would expect, Grayson Saunier was a big reason why. His third down completions that brought a new set of downs:

• eight yards (on 3rd and 5)
• 15 yards (3rd and 14)
• 19 yards (3rd and 9)
• 28 yards (3rd and 10)
• 30 yards (3rd and 11).

Saunier also ran for first downs on 3rd and 1, and for 10 yards on a must-have 4th and 10 at the end.

What They Did & What They Said After Lehigh

HANOVER – Given how monumental a win it would have been knocking off the No. 7 team in the nation on its home field, and how crushing the last-second loss ended up being, you might wonder how Dartmouth quarterback Grayson Saunier will bounce back from his game-sealing interception at the end.

But while you might wonder, his fellow co-captain Harrison Keith wouldn't.

Near Miss Against No. 7 Lehigh

BETHLEHEM, Pa. – In 1997, Lehigh rolled into Hanover and handed Dartmouth a loss that snapped the longest unbeaten streak in the nation at 23 games. Twenty-nine years later, the Big Green was on the cusp of returning the favor and ending the nation’s longest regular-season winning streak on the Mountain Hawks’ home field.

Taking over at his own 20 with 1:38 left in regulation and his team down four points, Dartmouth’s Grayson Saunier surgically picked apart the Lehigh defense, completing four of five throws while driving the Big Green to the Lehigh 26. There were only 19 seconds remaining, but the way Saunier was running the two-minute drill, it felt like it would take a Herculean play for the Mountain Hawks to hold on.

That’s exactly what they got.

Looking At Lehigh

BETHLEHEM, Pa. – If Dartmouth needs proof that an Ivy League team playing its opener can knock off a nationally ranked team that already has three games under its belt, it doesn’t have to look back very far.

Or very far away.

Just 364 days ago, the Big Green opened its season on Memorial Field with a 27-20 win over No. 23 New Hampshire.

Fearful Forecast Week One

HANOVER – What does it say that the Fearful Forecast finished the final week of the 2025 season picking all three games that featured Dartmouth’s nonconference opponents correctly, but going 1-2 in Ivy League games?

What it may say is the Ivy League really is the Any Given Saturday conference – even if some games are played on Fridays.

Despite the disappointment picking Ancient Eight winners Week 10, the 2025 season finished with a respectable 47-19 record and a .712 win percentage. Now on to 2006!

Keep in mind, the first week is always a crapshoot with Ivy League teams. Yes, the Ancient Eight has had a winning record in Week One games all but one time in the last 15 seasons, but it's going to be a close call this time around. I've got the Ivies going 4-3, but if I get them all correct except one that will mean a 3-4 mark in the Fearful Forecast. And that does not include the Dartmouth-Lehigh game.

Wait, one more thing. While there's almost always a silly thought with each game, the picks themselves are completely serious and the predicted score is offered to give an idea how close the game might be and whether it feels like a high- or low-scoring game.

And as the late, great Jackie Gleason used to say, "And away we go."

Lafayette 1-1, 0-0 Patriot at Columbia
Cat fight goes to the Leopards, 28-14

Brown at New Haven 1-2, 0-1 NEC
Brown wins on a blue field. Brown 38, New Haven 21

Harvard at New Hampshire 1-2, 0-1 CAA
Go with the second-best academic school in the state and the game. New Hampshire 28, Harvard 21

Cornell at Colgate 2-1, 2-0 Patriot
Gate dominates upstate. Colgate 35, Cornell 31

Princeton at Bryant 2-1, 1-1 CAA
Cats and dogs and cats win. Princeton 24, Bryant 21

Yale at Holy Cross 0-3, 0-2 Patriot
See ya later, Saders. Yale 24, Holy Cross 10

Penn at Bucknell 1-2, 0-2 Patriot
It’s the Quaker State. Penn 24, Bucknell 14

Monmouth 1-2, 1-0 CAA at Albany 2-1, 1-0 Patriot
New York isn't losing to New Jersey. Albany 34, Monmouth 32

Merrimack 1-2, Indy at Tarleton 3-0, 0-0 UAC
Warriors Tarleton’d and feathered. Tarleton 48, Monmouth 14

LAST WEEK OF 2025
This BGA Guy Is A Genius
Predicted: Yale 28, Harvard 24
Actual: Yale 45, Harvard 28
Comment: Harvard faces turned crimson . . . again

Predicted: New Hampshire 24, Maine 17
Actual: New Hampshire 33, Maine 27
Comment: Cow Hampshire over Moose Maine

Predicted: Central Connecticut 31, Mercyhurst 17
Actual: Central Connecticut 35, Mercyhurst 28
Comment: As if I had a clue

This BGA Guy is a Dolt
Predicted: Princeton 21, Penn 20
Actual: Penn 17, Princeton 6
Comment: Win the game, lose your job.

Predicted: Cornell 28, Columbia 14
Actual: Columbia 29, Cornell 12
Comment: Paid back for decision never to pick Columbia

Final Week of 2025: 4-2
Final 2025 Record: 47-19 (.712)

The Optimist And The Pessimist Before Lehigh

 Editor’s Note: The Optimist and The Pessimist made their debut even before Big Green Alert started in 2005. When you visualize the pair, think of Statler and Waldorf, the two grumpy old guys from The Muppets.

The Optimist, as you might have surmised, is 100 percent convinced Dartmouth is going to win every time out. And even if he’s not, he’s going to tell you why they will win.